Tuesday 28 December 2010

Does it figure?


Figures and statistics are on every page of the newspapers. For example, the Guardian on Monday 27 December published the result of an ICM poll. Support for Labour is 39%, Conservative 37% and LibDem support 13%, a 5 year low.

A little earlier in the month the YouGov/Sun poll of 23 December had Labour at 41%, Conservative 38% and LibDems 10 %.

What do these polls tell us?  Well, if we had an election on the 23 December Labour would have had a majority of 34, or so the statisticians would have us believe.  So, all Ed Miliband has to do is keep a low profile, wait for various factions of the Government to mutter something mildly incriminating to the milkman or plumber about those right/left wing bastards who haven’t a clue and PRDave’s coalition will fall. Maybe.

However, while the figures may not prove it, there seems to be little resistance in the eyes of the electorate to Labour undertaking a considered policy review, particularly when the Tories after years of opposition are galloping ahead with such ill conceived legislation that they are doing Labour's work for it. We can but hope.

On another page, an Oxford University study has found that the average British male’s weight has increased by 4.7kg (10.4lbs) over the last 15 years perhaps, it surmises, due to a decrease in physical activity.  While women whose average weight has increased by 5.4Kg (12lbs) it guesses are just eating more.

Could this be because as Alex Hawes in the Guardian writes “Cheap food policies are rearranging UK landscape.” Over the past two years 577 new food supermarkets have been approved, with Tesco leading the way at 392 new stores. Yes, we know that a new Tesco is the quickest way to destroy the high street of any town. But then our local and district councils who give them planning permission are not entirely blameless, are they? . Perhaps the gains in weight are not Tesco's fault, but men do you walk to the shops anymore? Have  women fallen for the temptation of choice on offer at their edge of town store?  

Or can we blame women’s greater disposable income, and increased parity with that of men, well no.  Taking Mid-Devon,  women in full time employment earn on average £363 per week, which is £97 per week less than your average male. And although wages are higher elsewhere, about 20% in the UK as a whole, the difference between male and female wages is about the same all over the country.

Do you now feel more informed? At least if you are a labour supporter the goodish news is that Ed Miliband achieved the only net positive score on all issues asked in the ICM survey.

23% think 2011 will be a better year for Cameron while 36% thought next year would be worse, only 12% thought Clegg’s prospects would improve next year against 47% who thought he will have a worse 2011.  

A whole 29% think it will be a better year for Miliband and a measly 27% worse, Hurrah.

If by any chance you are interested in polls and statistics you can go to    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/   Good luck.




   

  

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