Labour comes top twice in one day

Of particular interest to those in Devon and Cornwall  (for those of you living in far flung places its the bit of southern England that sticks out into the Atlantic)  there was another election last night and the following report was published at www.bbc.co.uk

Labour wins Cornwall Council seat in by-election

Jude Robinson said she worked hard for the victory

Labour has secured its only seat on Cornwall Council after winning a by-election.

Labour soared from fifth place at the last by-election in 2009 to win Camborne North.
Jude Robinson, who stood as a Labour candidate in the general election in 2010, won 230 votes, a 15% swing from the Conservatives who came second.
She called it a "turning point" for Labour, which also won Oldham East and Saddleworth parliamentary by-election.

By-election result

• Labour: 230
• Conservatives 203
• Lib Dems: 152
• Liberal Party: 61
• Mebyon Kernow: 32
• Green: 31
  

Ms Robinson said: "I am very pleased.

"I worked hard and people have been told for a long time they can't vote Labour here because that would let the Conservatives in.
"But this has proved Labour is the opposition to the Conservatives.
"This is a turning point for us."
The Conservative and independent-controlled council now consists of one Labour councillor, 48 Conservatives, 39 Liberal Democrats, 32 independents and three Mebyon Kernow councillors.
Exeter's Labour MP Ben Bradshaw, a former minister for the South West, said: "We have come from fifth place to win with a massive 25% swing.
"It shows that it is not just in our heartlands in the north of England that we can win, but even in places like Cornwall where a lot of people had written off Labour some time ago."
In the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, Labour's Debbie Abrahams held off the challenge of Lib Dem Elwyn Watkins, while the Conservatives' vote fell by more than 7,000 as they came a distant third.

So far so good.  However, What does this result mean? It is always  a good idea to do a little research before coming to a conclusion. In the Western Morning News July 21 2010 the following news item appeared:

Camborne Councillor to face sex attacks on two women charges

A 79-year-old Cornwall councillor has been charged with sex attacks on two women.

Conservative councillor Bill Jenkin, who represents Camborne North on the unitary authority, was arrested at his home on June 18 on suspicion of indecent assault.

I won't go on as this is not the News of the World
So, both the parliamentary and the district by- elections have taken place under a cloud. The former because of the disqualification of the previously elected  Phil Woolas,  the latter  because of  the incumbents arrest for alleged sexual offences.  OK, so Phil Woolas' conviction doesn't seem to have done Labour any harm.  However, we can only guess at the impact to the result of the Camborne by-election because of the circumstances of the Conservative's resignation.

Still, we would like to think that the announcement by the Conservative controlled Cornwall Council of massive cuts this week because of Tory led government's cuts in funding to local authorities was the decisive factor in Labour's victory. To appreciate the  context it's worth reading a Western Morning News article and readers comments the day before the election at: http://www.thisiscornwall.co.uk/news/coalition-Partners-face-Camborne-fight/article-3090307-detail/article.html


For those who like to play with statistics here are the results for 2009:


 Conservative 346

 Liberal Democrat 182

 Independent 149

 Mebyon Kernow 139

 Labour 100

 Liberal Party 21

Firstly, the swing, so beloved of TV pundits, from Tory to Labour is 17.5%  not 25% as Ben Bradshaw claims. Secondly Labour has increased its share of the vote by nearly 20% and the Tories have lost over 15%.  The LibDem share is slightly down at 1.6%, but they broadly maintain their share. What might be deduced? In both elections LibDem vote has held up, it is the  Conservative vote that has suffered. It will be interesting to monitor other elections because it could be that national polling, as evidenced  in the last election, isn't necessarily a guide as to what happens in individual seats.